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### Main Statistics, 4th Edition. David Freedman, Robert Pisani, Roger Purves. Renowned for its clear prose and no-nonsense emphasis on core concepts,

By comparison, prediction in frequentist statistics often involves finding an optimum point estimate of the parameter(s)—e.g., by maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimation (MAP)—and then plugging this estimate into the formula… In contrast, an observational study does not involve experimental manipulation. This result is often encountered in social-science and medical-science statistics and is particularly problematic when frequency data is unduly given causal interpretations. The paradox can be resolved when causal relations are…