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Downloaded by [University of Toronto] at 16:20 23 May 2014 David J.Bartholomew, Fiona Steele, Irini Moustaki, and Jane Galbraith. The Analysis of Time Applied Nonparametric Statistical Methods, Third Edition. P.Sprent Statistical Theory, Fourth Edition See Freedman and Lane (1983) for a discussion of these 

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Main Statistics, 4th Edition. David Freedman, Robert Pisani, Roger Purves. Renowned for its clear prose and no-nonsense emphasis on core concepts,

By comparison, prediction in frequentist statistics often involves finding an optimum point estimate of the parameter(s)—e.g., by maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimation (MAP)—and then plugging this estimate into the formula… In contrast, an observational study does not involve experimental manipulation. This result is often encountered in social-science and medical-science statistics and is particularly problematic when frequency data is unduly given causal interpretations. The paradox can be resolved when causal relations are…